How will real estate in Nanjing look like next year: Analysis of market trends and hot spots in 2024
As 2023 comes to an end, changes in Nanjing's real estate market have become the focus of citizens and investors. Combining the hot topics and data analysis of the entire Internet in the past 10 days, this article will interpret the possible trends of Nanjing's real estate market in 2024 from the perspectives of policy, supply and demand, price, and regional development.
1. Policy trends: deregulation and supportive policies
Recently, Nanjing’s property market policies have been frequently released, mainly focusing on lowering the threshold for home purchase and stimulating demand. The following are the key policies introduced or proposed in the fourth quarter of 2023:
| policy type | Specific content | Scope of influence |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase restrictions relaxed | The social security requirement for non-Nanjing household registration buyers to buy a house has been reduced from 2 years to 6 months | District 6 of the main city |
| loan interest rate | The interest rate for first-time home buyers dropped to 3.8% (LPR-50BP) | citywide |
| Provident Fund Loan | The maximum personal limit is adjusted to 1 million yuan | citywide |
2. Market supply and demand: Inventory pressure and differentiation intensify
According to data from the Nanjing Housing Security and Real Estate Bureau, the current market presents the following characteristics:
| indicator | November 2023 | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| new home inventory | 72,000 sets | +18% |
| Number of second-hand house listings | 153,000 sets | +34% |
| Average transaction price of new homes | 28,500 yuan/㎡ | -3.2% |
It can be seen from the data that the Nanjing property market as a whole is facing the pressure of oversupply, but the core areas such as Hexi, Southern New Town and other sectors still maintain high popularity, and the depuration cycle of the outer suburban sector has been significantly extended.
3. Price Forecast: Structural adjustment will continue
Based on predictions from many institutions, Nanjing housing prices may show the following trends in 2024:
| area | 2024 Forecast | supporting factors |
|---|---|---|
| Hexi plate | Flat or slightly up 5% | Mature supporting facilities and strong demand for improvement |
| Jiangbei New District | Fluctuation range ±3% | Industry introduction speed |
| Lishui/Liuhe | May fall 5-8% | High inventory pressure |
4. Investment advice: pay attention to three key points
1.Policy window period: The first half of 2024 may be the most relaxed period for interest rates and home purchase thresholds, so the customer groups who are in demand can focus on this.
2.School district housing revaluation: As the equalization of education advances, the premium for housing in traditional top school districts may shrink, while emerging high-quality school district sectors may have room for appreciation.
3.Urban renewal opportunities: Among the old city renovation projects, quality residences in areas such as Gulou Riverside and Dajiaochang still have potential.
5. Risk warning
We need to be alert to the following potential risks: 1) Delivery risks caused by pressure on some developers’ capital chains; 2) The continued decline in prices in the outer suburbs; 3) The impact of rising vacancy rates in the rental market on investment returns.
Conclusion
Nanjing's real estate market will continue to be differentiated in 2024, and the resilience of core areas and the growth of some emerging sectors deserve attention. It is recommended that home buyers make prudent decisions based on their own needs, combined with policy changes and regional development planning.
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